Each of 48 campaigners splits their effort between worth (true and substantive), slant (true, but framed to rile) and lies. Every season they shift a little towards whatever pays.
The average worth, slant and lies in the top posts each household reads, season by season. The lies counted here are the ones that got through: not rebutted among the whispers, and not caught at the kirk door.
Each bar is a township's cohesion: its own ties, its paths to the other townships, and the worth its households hear. Lies wear a township down. Slant mostly wears away the paths between townships, because it sets neighbours against each other. Split means a township stands but has lost touch with the rest. The percentage is how many of its households steer.
Where this comes from
Brazil's 2018 presidential election was fought partly in WhatsApp groups: encrypted, forwarded from phone to phone, with no way to trace who started a message or to check it. One sample of nearly 12,000 messages from 296 groups, reported by The Guardian, found about 42% of right-wing content false and under 3% of left-wing content.
In the 2026 runoff much of the campaigning ran through WhatsApp Channels, which are one-way broadcasts from named admins and aren't end-to-end encrypted. The largest pro-Lula channel, run by the deputy André Janones, passed ten million followers, and a rival channel backed Flávio Bolsonaro. Because a channel is public, Brazil's electoral court could inspect it. The Bolsonaro campaign said the Janones channel spread false claims about benefits and pensions. The court's own technical team found no repeats of the disputed claims in the posts it checked, and noted coordinated sharing and polarising language.
Lula won the runoff on 25 October with about 51.7% of the vote. Nothing here says a channel decided that. The glen asks a narrower question: what does putting a name on the news change?
Why a kirk door
In a Highland township, news travelled from house to house, or it was said in public, where everyone knew who had said it. The glen uses the kirk door for the second.
Speaking under your own name carries a cost as well as a check. When the Napier Commission began hearing crofters' evidence on 8 May 1883, its first witness, Angus Stewart of Braes on Skye, asked for an assurance that he wouldn't be evicted for testifying. Lord Napier said the commission couldn't interfere. Over five months it heard about 800 people, and its report helped bring about the Crofters Holdings (Scotland) Act 1886, which gave crofters security of tenure.
Three laws and a fourth word
Goodhart's law, in Marilyn Strathern's wording: when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. A check for falsehood is a measure too. Once a campaign must avoid claims already ruled false, it learns to avoid them, and keeps everything else. Donald Campbell said much the same about social indicators in the 1970s: the more they decide, the more they get bent.
Brandolini's law, from the programmer Alberto Brandolini in 2013: refuting nonsense takes far more effort than producing it. That is why whispered lies survive, and why a name helps. It moves some of the cost back to the speaker.
The fourth word comes from Claire Wardle and Hossein Derakhshan, in a 2017 report for the Council of Europe. Misinformation is false and shared without meaning harm. Disinformation is false and meant to harm. Malinformation is true and used to harm. A check for falsehood catches the first two. The glen's bracken is the third.
Try this
- Press Reset the glen. News is mostly whispered and 3% of households steer. Lies pay, sheep fill the glen and the townships empty.
- Press 90% · mostly signed. Named lies get caught, and the sheep go. Watch the bracken come in: the townships stand, but the paths between them fade.
- Drag the catch rate down to 20%. A name on its own changes little, and the sheep come back.
- Put the catch rate back to 60% and press 15%. With lies checked, a few more households steering brings the paths back. Press 10% · mostly whispered, and the same 15% isn't enough.
What the glen says
In this model, putting a name on the news and checking it changes which kind of manipulation pays. Lies stop paying. Slant pays instead, because it passes the check, and the townships stand but stop talking to each other. A name without a check changes almost nothing.
What raises worth is still the lever from Day 25: households steering their own feeds, across many feeds. The two levers help each other. With news mostly whispered, the glen needs about half its households steering before every township stands. With lies checked at the kirk door, about one in ten keeps the paths open.